Frontview Mirror: 2025 Edition

UL Member Content

Table of Contents

• Russia and Ukraine

• Russia and the US

• The Rise of Christian Nationalism

• US Goes Hardcore Pro-Israel

• China and Iran Become the Main Adversaries of the …

• The US Buddies Up Even Closer with India

• Axis and Allies

• The AI Crash-Takeoff

• Enterprise Continues to Roll Out AI

• AI Agents Start to Mature

• AGI in 2025?

• The Pro-business Environment Post-US-Election

• Combined Forces Accelerate the US Relative to the …

• Job Market Dynamics

• Getting Ready For All of This

• Predictions

• Recommendations

• Final Analysis

As with every piece in this series, I won’t pretend I can see what’s coming.
Because I can’t—and nobody can.

So what I’m going to do here—typical of the series—is to throw a bunch of
stuff on the board and see what we think of them. This time, we’re also
going to turn the post into a thread on UL Discord so we can actively
discuss what we throw out here.

Think of these less as pure predictions and more like
stream-of-consciousness whiteboarding combined with some possible (not
overly serious) predictions.

I will avoid overly saying “I think” and “maybe” in these because it’s
so cumbersome to look at. I’ll either try to give percentages or find some
other “total context” way to convey how confident in the various
projections.

But in general, if I’m VERY confident, then it’s like 85-95%. And
somewhat confident is more like 65-75%.

So basically, adjust what you hear way down in confidence unless I say
otherwise.

Ok, let’s take these one at a time…

Russia and Ukraine

• The Ukraine War ends in less than 6 months (90), and probably less than
  3 (70)

• Trump sits Putin an Zelensky down and tells them to figure out borders
  and forces them to sign a deal. And it’s done

• Trump massively lowers tension with Russia, removes a ton of sanctions

• The end result is that Russia ends up re-integrating with Europe and the
  world to a surprising degree over the next 1-3 years—almost as if they
  never invaded Ukraine

Russia and the US

• Russia becomes kind of like a friendly frenemy with the US, because of
  Putin’s relationship with Trump

• Many US sanctions on Russia get silently removed, and the same happens
  in other countries as well

I think the binding thing Putin and Trump have in common is a general
feeling that they’re protecting Western, Christian civilization against
chaos caused by Islamic Extremism and Postmodern Wokeism.

And because they feel united at that level, it diminishes the
disagreements they have other political and security issues. Basically, in
their minds, if they’re the last “good guys” fighting against the lunacy
that wants to destroy civilization—they’re more friends than
enemies.

I don’t know that this is a true or strong dynamic, but it’s a world
model that I’ve put together that seems to explain a lot, and I’m looking
for evidence to support or refute it. Also fits a lot of the other trends
we talk about here.

The Rise of Christian Nationalism

• The above coincides with a general rise in a defense of (white?)
  Christian culture that we’re seeing throughout Europe, mostly coming
  from the far right

• Extreme right parties in France, Germany, Eastern Europe, etc. will
  continue to gain strength because (in my opinion) the left/center
  refuses to touch immigration and cultural dissonance issues in a direct
  and logical way.

In short, the inability for the left/center to speak honestly about
immigration/culture issues means they give all the power to the far right.
Which means the issues aren’t likely to be approached with empathy and
humanism, but rather with hatred and bigotry.

US Goes Hardcore Pro-Israel

• Netanyahu is strengthened by Trump due to their strongman affinities
  (despite their disagreements in the past), and the US continues to
  support Israel’s attacks on not just Hamas and Hezbollah, but also on
  Iran (70)

China and Iran Become the Main Adversaries of the West

• Russia becomes more friendly with the US, and almost becomes a friendly
  compared to our actual enemies

• Trump gets Saudi to partner with Israel, similar to what they were going
  to do before October 7th

• So the main adversaries to the US become China and Iran—but mostly China

• China gets increasingly marginalized and ostracized, which increases
  their agitation and the chances of them doing something rash in Taiwan

• Trump’s trade policies put even more pressure on China because thousands
  of companies will start moving their offshoring to Vietnam, Mexico, and
  other options to avoid paying tariffs for building in China

• Russia plays the middle between US-China, and US-Iran

The US Buddies Up Even Closer with India

• Tulsi Gabbard is strongly pro-India, and specifically Hindu Nationalism,
  and is very Russia-friendly. She’s also the US’s new head of
  Intelligence

• This will solidify the trend to normalizing relations with Russia

• It also brings the US closer to India with regard to India’s being torn
  between Russia and the US. In this mode, it can be more openly friendly
  with both because all three are more friendly

• Again, this goes back to protecting against Radical Islam and Wokeism
  (and China). The US and Russia being on India’s side against Pakistan
  (and China in the US’s case) is huge, combined with generally supporting
  their hardline against cultural attacks against the mainstream (Hindu
  Nationalism)

Axis and Allies

• So what this effectively means is:

  Allies: US, Canada, Mexico, Western Europe, Israel, Saudi

  Axis: China, Iran, North Korea

• Russia sits in a weird / happy place between them both, benefiting from
  both, and influencing both to hate each other

The AI Crash-Takeoff

• We’re in a strange place where a lot of the AI hype and noise is dying
  down, and now there’s a strange silence where everyone—from consumers to
  investors—is trying to figure out what’s next

• I think what’s next is what I’ll call the Crash-Takeoff, where two
  things happen at once. 1) A lot of the companies/projects/investments
  that were FOMO-based and not well-thought-out, will die. While, 2) the
  projects/companies/investments that were based on solid AI and business
  fundamentals will hockey stick.

• So it’s not whether AI will be a bubble and burst, or whether it will go
  to the moon. Both will happen, somewhat simultaneously, in a way that’s
  confusing to those who can’t see that it’s two things happening at once

Enterprise Continues to Roll Out AI

• Part of the hockey stick narrative is the endless push to reduce
  expenses, aka reduce headcount. See The
  End of Work. Not everything happening in AI is that though: some companies will
  just be doing small-o optimizing

• Either way, the push to get more and more of business operations moved
  to AI will continue and accelerate. Call centers. Support. Sales.
  Marketing. And pretty much every other area as well.

• Some departments and companies and sectors will move faster than others
  but the pressure towards this will be relentless, and it will only
  accelerate as AI gets better—especially as Agents start to truly come
  online

AI Agents Start to Mature

• I think 2025 is pretty likely (80) to hit a tipping point of usability
  and consistency in 2025, which will mangify the effectiveness of all the
  AI that was build from 2022-2024

• Agents are—in my opinion—what get us to AGI. Not one particular
  standalone model, but Agentic Systems that can perform tasks as good or
  better than a certain level of competent human knowlege worker (see my AI definitions here)

• So basically, if you purchase an AI Employee from Accenture, for
  example, you’re actually buying a pretty complex system behind that.
  It’s a network of AI Agents operating together in a way that feels like
  one thing

• Will that be “true” AGI? That’s for the philosophers to figure out. But
  I call it AGI because it’ll be able to replicate the work of a
  highly-competent human—which is what we actually care about

AGI in 2025?

• Will this definition of AGI happen in 2025? Who knows. I think it’s
  possible, but I’d put it at something like 70% chance of happening in
  2025

• My sweet spot for AGI—using the definition above is more like 2026-2027

• I’d say we have an 90% chance of hitting this definition of AGI between
  2025 and 2028, which is my original estimate from 2023

The Pro-business Environment Post-US-Election

• We can see from the stock market’s performance how optimistic the
  business world is about Trump’s second presidency

• I am not an expert on macroeconomics or inflation, but I understand that
  there are forces like inflation that might be worse under Trump if he
  massively grows the debt and/or goes too aggressive with tariffs

• But I also know that
  Everything is Framing, and you should not discount the power of positive momentum, belief,
  and the country and/or world thinking that the US is on the ascent

• I expect tons of investment activity, IPOs, new startups, and general
  positivity and energy coming into the US economy

• This is also combined with far less regulation, and the hype from the
  possibility of the DOGE efforts finding / returning hundreds of billions
  of dollars to the economy

Combined Forces Accelerate the US Relative to the World

• I think given all the above, the US is in an extraordinarily good
  position

• Not just politically, and economically, but just in general—in terms of
  vibes (Framing)

• I don’t see much risk of the US Dollar failing as the world’s currency
  when it seems like the most ascendant country in the world right now

• Yes, China is as strong or stronger economically, but over the last few
  years the whole world has realized they’re malicious and basically an
  enemy

• So countries that are doing business with China are doing so because
  they have to, not because they want to. I think the US has its own
  problems in that regard, but long-term I think many more countries would
  rather be friendly with the US than China

• Europe is in decline due to mismanagemnt of its politics, too much
  immigration, a failure to assimilate the people they’ve brought in,
  resistance to embracing AI, and a general culture of caution,
  regulation, and isolationism

• Canada is similarly paralyzed

• Russia is ostracised and in the middle of a war

• The middle east is trying to figure out how to pivot out of oil

• Japan is struggling with economic and demographic issues

• So it’s basically the US vs. China in terms of who smaller countries are
  going to tie themselves to for their future hopes, and I think the US is
  winning that narrative

Job Market Dynamics

• This one is the hardest to predict for similar reasons to the AI
  situation

• I anticipate a lot more business and optimism and activity, which will
  naturally lead to more hiring

• But at the same time there will be a lot more layoffs due to downsizing
  and optimizing—much of which will involve the migration to AI

• So you could be part of both or either of these. Prepare for both

• The safest place to be, in my opinion, is to be moving towards Human 3.0
  where you are building and selling your own products and services

Getting Ready For All of This

• Assuming I’m directionally right about some or most of this, what do we
  do?

• For this, I’ll refer to a recent newsletter recommendation of the week:

• Taking more recommendations from previous episodes, I’d also say:

• Understand what part of this stack you’re good at:

  IDEA →
  TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION → GO TO MARKET

• Enhance your abilities in your strongest area in that stack, but also
  start working towards being able to do the entire stack

• Use AI to help you do this; make it part of everything you do

• Use a system like
  TELOS
  to deeply understand what you’re trying to do, starting with the
  problems you’re trying to solve

• Lock down your
  Most Important Sentence

• Read like your life depends on it, because it does. I recommend 50 books
  in 2025. Mostly high-quality non-fiction, with some high-quality fiction
  thrown in

• Realize that nobody knows what’s going to happen in what could be one of
  the craziest years in history,
  so the game is not to have the perfect plan

• The game is getting really good at adjusting your plans

• The skills and activities above are designed to help you no matter what
  happens

Predictions

I used Fabric’s extract_predictions
to consume the above and come up with some concise predictions. Again,
this is a thought exercise—not prophecy.

Recommendations

And from that, here are the extracted recommendations
(extract_recommendations).

Not perfect, but not bad.

Final Analysis

Last thing to say here is what you see above is simply what I see happening,
and in most cases I’ve purposely decoupled that from my opinions about them.

So as for my opinions, I don’t think they matter much. This is the world
we’re heading into, so I don’t see much value in complaining. But if you
force me to say something, I’m generally terrified and optimistic.

All this motion towards preferring strength and unification and booming
economic growth might be extremely positive, and I am forcing myself to be
upbeat about it and hopiong for the best. At the same time, we could be
setting ourselves up for a new Dark Ages of authoritarian control and
oversight—this time assisted by AI. Yay.

It’s all very U-shaped. Pretty high chances for resounding success and a
blossoming West—and far too high a chance for something truly Orwellian and
dystopian.

As usual, I’m doing my best to stay on the Optimism side—with the help of
the UL Community—and preparing for whatever comes.

—

I hope this has been helpful.

I’m going to keep the text here locked in after a couple of days, and add my
predictions to my TELOS file so I can retroactively see what I was wrong
about and find my own biases.

See you soon.